* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 37 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 37 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 41 39 36 33 30 28 26 24 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 21 18 24 29 30 26 32 32 43 39 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 216 219 217 224 237 218 228 228 244 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 136 137 138 140 143 143 144 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 60 59 57 61 57 55 54 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 0 0 -3 -30 -46 -52 -54 -51 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 29 25 34 63 36 36 -8 14 8 48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 516 484 508 569 660 806 978 1155 1363 1605 1881 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.4 156.0 157.5 159.1 160.6 163.5 166.2 168.7 171.3 174.0 176.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 31 12 13 17 39 29 70 71 61 74 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -32. -34. -36. -37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY