* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/02/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 32 28 23 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 32 28 23 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 40 36 33 31 30 29 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 19 23 27 31 22 27 29 36 40 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 223 213 216 223 220 212 222 234 242 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 137 139 142 143 143 144 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 61 59 63 64 60 59 55 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -12 -16 -19 -24 -35 -50 -62 -50 -48 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 20 30 56 43 52 27 17 46 8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 516 580 668 776 887 1062 1262 1481 1721 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.9 157.5 159.0 160.5 161.9 164.6 167.4 170.0 172.5 175.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 12 13 19 34 27 63 72 72 67 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -17. -22. -27. -29. -31. -32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY