* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/02/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 36 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 36 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 37 33 29 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 24 29 28 31 26 26 31 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 224 230 237 235 227 240 237 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 138 139 138 140 143 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 61 61 59 62 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -23 -31 -41 -54 -69 -54 -51 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 38 18 24 31 12 31 59 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 662 768 862 911 1054 1258 1478 1721 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.3 159.8 161.3 162.8 164.2 166.9 169.6 172.3 175.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 37 38 41 58 75 71 66 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -18. -24. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/02/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY