* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LANA EP062009 08/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 36 29 29 34 32 30 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 243 233 239 241 219 212 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 142 144 145 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 60 60 59 59 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -38 -57 -68 -68 -66 -56 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 36 51 24 22 42 52 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 858 917 998 1092 1199 1437 1696 1943 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.9 164.4 165.9 167.4 168.9 171.8 174.7 177.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 43 25 60 70 73 63 74 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -30. -29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062009 LANA 08/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062009 LANA 08/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY