* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 08/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 45 46 45 40 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 45 46 45 40 37 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 32 30 28 26 25 24 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 12 12 8 12 10 13 16 13 17 16 SHEAR DIR 311 338 358 345 351 265 260 233 221 208 204 172 188 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.3 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 154 154 150 139 127 123 122 123 121 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 71 71 67 68 68 65 60 57 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 29 33 38 29 41 43 45 68 69 86 66 56 200 MB DIV 42 48 69 79 87 76 85 47 72 47 37 29 13 LAND (KM) 1001 1087 1122 1162 1219 1343 1477 1620 1810 2074 2031 1706 1410 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.2 18.2 17.7 17.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 113.0 114.4 115.8 117.2 120.4 123.4 126.3 129.3 132.4 135.6 138.8 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 15 16 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 33 41 46 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 21. 20. 15. 12. 11. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 08/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 08/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY