* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 08/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 70 76 76 76 74 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 70 76 76 76 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 58 64 67 67 65 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 6 9 9 10 7 9 7 12 14 8 SHEAR DIR 44 46 69 41 348 39 85 84 116 80 50 72 22 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 151 151 148 144 140 136 131 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -50.9 -52.0 -50.9 -51.6 -50.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 73 72 70 69 75 75 73 73 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 10 9 9 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 48 65 79 82 74 58 53 55 35 35 14 -3 200 MB DIV 35 34 46 46 56 91 74 102 107 87 53 55 21 LAND (KM) 1838 1886 1938 1972 2005 2059 2096 2132 2161 2213 2314 2149 1921 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.8 122.7 123.6 124.4 126.1 127.5 128.8 130.0 131.3 133.0 134.8 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 45 40 36 35 46 35 33 29 24 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 45. 51. 51. 51. 49. 46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 08/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 08/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY