* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 08/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 54 49 48 39 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 54 49 48 39 33 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 40 38 35 31 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 16 15 15 13 7 11 11 18 14 17 18 SHEAR DIR 351 8 359 351 338 341 316 271 260 247 241 236 236 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.0 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 153 148 137 125 119 117 113 111 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 70 71 71 71 69 71 70 67 62 56 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 7 9 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 10 13 6 29 28 46 46 55 30 48 40 200 MB DIV 39 67 72 81 70 67 73 66 35 40 26 29 22 LAND (KM) 1039 1120 1141 1172 1222 1341 1464 1618 1818 2088 1897 1518 1151 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.8 17.9 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.6 116.1 117.5 120.5 123.5 126.6 129.8 133.1 136.7 140.3 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 16 16 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 34 42 45 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 24. 19. 18. 9. 3. -1. -5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 08/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 08/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY