* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 08/03/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 53 58 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 53 58 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 34 39 44 48 50 50 48 46 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 7 4 9 11 8 6 2 9 6 8 SHEAR DIR 84 90 81 35 21 107 115 106 118 341 35 360 327 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 152 150 148 144 136 131 125 118 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 69 70 74 75 74 74 66 64 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 73 77 73 76 71 61 44 25 45 37 31 30 200 MB DIV 35 43 47 48 71 80 76 85 39 69 30 29 2 LAND (KM) 1773 1813 1850 1870 1895 1955 1995 2037 2098 2197 2112 1836 1575 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.7 123.5 124.3 126.1 127.6 129.1 130.8 132.6 134.9 137.4 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 45 40 37 39 33 30 18 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 28. 33. 37. 36. 35. 33. 30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 08/03/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 08/03/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY