* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 54 62 67 68 67 63 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 54 62 67 68 67 63 58 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 56 60 63 63 60 57 54 52 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 9 7 11 11 14 11 14 12 6 6 SHEAR DIR 358 30 15 359 6 5 22 16 35 5 56 47 58 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 151 151 150 146 142 136 133 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 71 70 73 73 72 72 70 70 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 5 0 8 7 12 27 30 20 0 -15 -27 200 MB DIV 78 67 84 76 64 82 58 81 59 56 38 40 13 LAND (KM) 1139 1152 1175 1204 1241 1336 1414 1528 1656 1766 1881 2044 2243 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.4 119.3 121.2 123.2 125.3 127.3 129.2 131.2 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 40 45 48 41 20 17 6 2 1 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 27. 32. 33. 32. 28. 23. 21. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY