* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082009 08/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 44 52 62 69 69 67 64 60 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 44 52 62 69 69 67 64 60 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 39 45 50 55 56 54 51 46 41 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 5 9 8 9 8 7 3 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 96 101 89 132 99 72 109 92 141 176 212 256 269 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 150 148 143 135 128 124 117 109 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 69 70 71 73 75 71 68 65 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 12 12 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 68 76 73 73 72 61 45 42 28 35 27 37 33 200 MB DIV 55 47 36 56 76 61 80 55 44 23 4 12 -2 LAND (KM) 1791 1818 1850 1880 1916 1970 2014 2059 2134 2201 1946 1708 1465 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.1 123.9 124.8 125.7 127.3 128.9 130.4 132.1 134.0 136.3 138.5 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 39 34 35 32 28 14 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 32. 39. 39. 37. 34. 30. 25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 EIGHT 08/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 EIGHT 08/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY