* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 48 51 51 50 44 41 36 34 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 48 51 51 50 44 41 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 44 44 43 41 39 36 34 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 12 17 21 18 19 18 20 19 18 15 SHEAR DIR 9 2 357 357 357 10 15 11 4 10 19 19 20 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 149 145 140 134 131 130 126 126 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 71 72 71 75 73 69 67 66 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 6 7 3 -6 14 18 24 18 -4 -12 -22 200 MB DIV 64 52 68 74 70 55 74 56 45 -6 -10 -5 -15 LAND (KM) 1140 1156 1182 1221 1267 1346 1467 1610 1728 1865 2014 2184 2103 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.0 116.9 117.9 118.8 120.7 122.9 125.0 127.0 129.0 131.0 133.0 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 42 42 36 10 8 4 2 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 16. 16. 15. 9. 6. 1. -1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY