* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082009 08/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 59 62 62 61 59 56 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 59 62 62 61 59 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 51 54 54 52 49 46 44 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 6 8 10 8 6 4 2 5 8 17 SHEAR DIR 87 78 79 104 81 116 79 103 162 311 185 189 197 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 149 144 135 129 123 118 118 122 122 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 68 70 68 68 62 57 60 56 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 66 68 70 57 58 59 48 47 33 29 40 200 MB DIV 48 34 40 60 71 54 45 23 -3 -12 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1841 1869 1902 1916 1936 1984 2076 2204 2056 1789 1506 1190 847 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.3 125.2 126.0 126.8 128.6 130.8 133.0 135.4 137.9 140.6 143.6 146.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 34 35 33 27 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 32. 32. 31. 29. 26. 22. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 EIGHT 08/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 EIGHT 08/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY