* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 73 82 85 85 80 77 73 69 63 V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 68 73 82 85 85 80 77 73 69 63 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 71 76 82 82 79 73 68 63 60 57 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 9 9 10 13 11 6 6 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 66 53 81 94 91 98 52 62 60 49 29 113 97 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 148 143 135 130 126 121 122 124 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 68 67 68 63 64 61 59 54 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 14 15 16 14 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 55 48 44 42 49 49 33 29 29 19 20 200 MB DIV 40 30 41 66 39 75 37 14 12 4 -9 9 -7 LAND (KM) 1946 1987 2034 2067 2098 2135 2254 2165 1960 1667 1267 966 741 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.8 17.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.0 127.1 128.0 128.8 130.4 132.7 134.6 136.5 139.2 142.9 145.8 148.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 11 11 9 11 16 16 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 47 41 41 39 23 12 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 32. 35. 35. 30. 27. 23. 19. 14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY