* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/04/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 83 89 94 101 101 96 90 83 78 72 66 V (KT) LAND 65 75 83 89 94 101 101 96 90 83 78 72 66 V (KT) LGE mod 65 76 86 92 96 98 94 87 79 72 66 62 58 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 9 10 15 13 12 7 5 7 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 54 81 88 87 99 70 49 50 41 33 84 107 N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 149 147 142 136 132 126 122 123 126 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 67 69 67 67 65 64 59 55 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 46 42 42 39 45 36 28 10 8 21 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 40 64 39 46 48 7 20 8 -14 -10 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 2018 2057 2100 2143 2170 2236 2299 2172 1928 1638 1283 974 716 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.1 128.0 128.9 129.8 131.4 132.9 134.6 136.8 139.5 142.8 145.8 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 12 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 43 41 41 37 27 20 2 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 18. 24. 29. 36. 36. 31. 25. 18. 13. 7. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/04/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 62% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 62% is 12.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/04/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY