* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 36 32 27 23 20 18 17 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 36 32 27 23 20 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 39 36 32 29 25 22 19 17 17 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 15 17 14 18 15 19 18 11 6 3 8 SHEAR DIR 344 327 330 352 355 2 13 21 28 25 11 36 232 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 135 131 122 116 111 109 110 111 109 110 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 66 67 69 65 62 60 56 52 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 -19 -24 -20 -13 -14 -26 -31 -36 -41 -33 -16 200 MB DIV 63 45 28 31 22 18 18 6 0 -1 -19 -22 -31 LAND (KM) 1228 1254 1291 1328 1373 1455 1534 1648 1803 2010 2052 1823 1604 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.6 19.9 19.9 19.6 19.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.1 121.1 122.1 123.0 124.8 126.6 128.5 130.5 132.8 135.2 137.4 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 12 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY