* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 84 91 96 99 98 93 86 79 73 67 62 V (KT) LAND 70 78 84 91 96 99 98 93 86 79 73 67 62 V (KT) LGE mod 70 78 84 88 91 92 88 80 72 63 57 54 51 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 7 10 10 13 14 14 10 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 100 88 60 76 87 63 32 48 50 38 53 33 201 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 147 145 139 134 129 124 122 123 125 125 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -50.7 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 68 71 70 71 67 67 62 59 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 64 50 44 39 35 29 15 0 -21 -37 -23 -11 5 200 MB DIV 61 69 58 75 96 46 46 9 -3 13 8 -10 -11 LAND (KM) 2041 2087 2139 2164 2191 2254 2279 2071 1832 1542 1194 886 624 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.8 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.4 132.0 133.6 135.5 137.7 140.4 143.6 146.6 149.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 41 41 40 32 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 28. 23. 16. 9. 3. -3. -8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY