* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/05/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 32 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 32 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 37 33 28 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 16 18 24 24 23 14 14 3 5 12 SHEAR DIR 328 337 351 354 4 18 13 12 357 9 316 239 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 133 128 123 116 115 114 112 114 115 114 117 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 68 69 68 68 66 65 57 55 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -7 -12 -12 -9 -28 -30 -41 -28 -29 -11 -11 0 200 MB DIV 54 39 19 15 9 24 5 -6 0 -20 -22 -36 -17 LAND (KM) 1243 1278 1323 1372 1412 1518 1673 1846 2023 2107 1924 1708 1494 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.2 18.6 18.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.3 123.3 124.3 126.3 128.4 130.5 132.7 134.7 136.5 138.6 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY