* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/05/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 98 102 104 103 98 90 82 70 65 56 50 V (KT) LAND 85 92 98 102 104 103 98 90 82 70 65 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 85 92 97 99 99 94 85 75 65 57 52 49 46 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 11 9 10 12 12 4 4 1 7 9 SHEAR DIR 78 70 70 70 60 16 35 18 38 352 167 253 234 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.4 25.9 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 141 135 128 123 117 118 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 68 68 66 63 62 60 54 51 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 45 46 42 25 6 -20 -17 -26 -9 -19 -5 200 MB DIV 74 60 68 75 55 4 16 -14 19 6 -3 -7 3 LAND (KM) 2084 2127 2156 2175 2198 2286 2147 1924 1653 1365 1052 742 438 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.7 129.6 130.4 131.2 133.0 134.7 136.7 139.2 141.9 144.9 147.9 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 11 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 41 40 36 24 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 7. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 19. 18. 13. 5. -3. -15. -20. -29. -35. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY