* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 36 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 40 36 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 37 32 27 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 18 12 15 16 21 24 18 16 11 11 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 335 355 349 352 347 360 6 9 25 18 336 280 N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.0 24.9 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.6 24.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 125 119 115 114 113 114 110 107 109 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 68 67 67 68 73 70 64 61 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -12 -13 -10 -20 -30 -38 -35 -27 -27 -6 7 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 11 20 17 -3 22 -8 4 -18 4 2 27 N/A LAND (KM) 1297 1342 1393 1440 1496 1686 1904 2129 1948 1706 1465 1266 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.9 19.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.3 128.8 131.3 133.8 136.2 138.5 140.8 142.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -34. -37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY