* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 109 114 117 117 112 100 91 77 67 61 52 44 V (KT) LAND 100 109 114 117 117 112 100 91 77 67 61 52 44 V (KT) LGE mod 100 108 111 109 105 94 82 70 59 52 47 44 40 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 11 7 10 7 5 3 4 4 7 14 SHEAR DIR 73 79 91 61 55 46 18 26 24 178 264 222 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 143 140 136 129 121 116 113 115 120 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 66 70 68 69 67 65 65 60 55 53 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 17 18 19 19 20 17 16 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 56 43 37 30 16 4 -12 -14 -17 -16 -4 0 -1 200 MB DIV 55 59 61 56 33 16 -17 17 -15 6 10 11 -4 LAND (KM) 2075 2098 2120 2143 2170 2243 2073 1832 1566 1280 965 671 411 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.2 130.0 130.8 131.6 133.3 135.2 137.4 139.9 142.6 145.6 148.4 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 40 34 26 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -24. -31. -37. -40. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 17. 17. 12. 0. -9. -23. -33. -39. -48. -56. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY