* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 38 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 38 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 38 32 27 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 12 15 14 16 17 18 16 12 9 13 20 N/A SHEAR DIR 358 355 7 357 6 4 347 18 351 288 291 260 N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 116 113 110 110 110 109 105 106 109 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 65 64 66 67 64 59 56 51 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -14 -9 -21 -27 -28 -36 -19 -22 0 1 17 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 18 20 6 19 30 -11 3 -15 0 -7 -12 N/A LAND (KM) 1308 1360 1397 1462 1535 1753 1977 2060 1799 1538 1309 1102 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.0 126.2 127.4 130.0 132.5 135.1 137.6 140.1 142.3 144.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -33. -36. -39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY