* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 120 120 117 105 93 82 69 58 50 40 29 V (KT) LAND 110 117 120 120 117 105 93 82 69 58 50 40 29 V (KT) LGE mod 110 115 114 110 103 90 76 64 55 48 43 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 11 12 5 2 6 11 14 26 27 SHEAR DIR 75 79 52 64 47 32 357 48 274 226 232 236 250 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 138 134 129 124 116 108 110 113 115 116 119 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 68 64 65 65 62 59 52 52 52 50 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 17 15 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 43 30 21 13 0 4 -4 8 4 2 -3 200 MB DIV 77 81 61 38 14 11 -7 -6 -12 5 -4 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 2117 2128 2144 2162 2183 2169 1903 1645 1412 1131 820 531 266 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.2 131.1 131.9 132.6 134.3 136.7 139.1 141.3 144.0 147.0 149.8 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 11 12 11 12 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 30 17 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -25. -35. -44. -50. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 10. 7. -5. -17. -28. -41. -52. -60. -70. -81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/05/09 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY