* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 37 31 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 5 9 16 21 20 24 29 31 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 352 332 331 310 316 283 281 259 268 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 110 106 103 102 100 97 94 100 104 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 64 61 59 59 58 54 51 50 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -19 -22 -23 -3 3 -1 3 2 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 14 23 30 -4 9 4 0 -1 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1316 1346 1387 1491 1603 1869 2028 1751 1482 1211 981 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.6 23.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.1 126.1 127.6 129.1 132.4 135.3 138.2 140.9 143.6 146.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -40. -44. -48. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY