* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 123 120 114 98 86 71 56 46 37 30 27 V (KT) LAND 120 124 123 120 114 98 86 71 56 46 37 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 120 121 116 108 100 83 69 57 49 43 38 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 9 10 8 3 6 9 12 19 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 32 50 43 48 35 325 278 244 269 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 24.9 25.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 135 130 125 118 109 105 109 113 114 117 125 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 67 67 61 62 55 51 52 51 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 17 19 17 15 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 47 33 23 17 -3 -3 0 -10 -4 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 73 37 8 16 -15 11 4 3 -15 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2136 2140 2148 2165 2187 2093 1832 1580 1340 1070 785 455 76 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.8 20.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.4 133.1 134.9 137.3 139.7 142.0 144.6 147.4 150.6 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 13 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 40 33 21 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -24. -36. -48. -57. -63. -67. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 0. -6. -22. -34. -49. -64. -74. -83. -90. -93. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY