* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/06/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 40 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 40 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 40 37 31 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 7 16 22 21 26 30 44 53 55 N/A SHEAR DIR 10 4 17 289 296 300 273 263 252 253 261 261 N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.9 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 103 99 97 94 93 89 92 98 101 103 106 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 55 53 54 50 47 47 45 43 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -30 -31 -30 -13 -2 10 8 21 14 0 -8 N/A 200 MB DIV 36 6 5 0 0 5 2 10 6 -6 -19 1 N/A LAND (KM) 1344 1405 1478 1585 1699 1857 1907 1635 1383 1161 1015 904 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.6 127.9 129.4 130.8 133.8 136.8 139.6 142.3 144.9 146.9 148.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -26. -34. -42. -50. -57. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY