* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/06/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 121 116 107 89 76 60 49 37 27 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 125 125 121 116 107 89 76 60 49 37 27 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 123 116 107 97 80 65 54 46 41 36 31 26 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 11 13 12 4 7 12 20 26 28 38 SHEAR DIR 37 34 32 37 17 360 17 273 247 266 268 272 247 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.4 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 129 123 116 107 107 111 113 116 118 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 63 65 61 57 51 50 48 48 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 18 18 17 18 15 15 13 12 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 23 0 1 1 -18 -6 -10 4 -2 -8 -6 0 200 MB DIV 77 36 -1 6 4 -9 0 9 0 -15 -28 -23 -38 LAND (KM) 2159 2169 2184 2212 2211 2007 1790 1517 1215 945 736 417 76 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.5 132.2 133.1 133.9 135.7 137.7 140.3 143.2 145.8 147.8 150.9 154.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 11 12 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 14 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -16. -28. -42. -53. -62. -69. -72. -75. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -4. -1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -9. -18. -36. -49. -65. -76. -88. -98.-110.-115. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY