* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 28 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 13 17 19 23 28 37 45 56 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 62 241 304 299 284 254 258 260 254 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 22.8 22.7 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 97 97 96 91 90 96 100 101 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 55 54 48 47 45 45 42 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -24 -8 -10 1 12 20 27 11 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 6 -2 11 0 20 16 7 -7 6 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1527 1616 1741 1822 1978 1756 1503 1267 1120 982 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.2 24.9 25.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.4 129.6 131.1 132.5 135.5 138.3 141.0 143.6 145.6 147.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -24. -30. -38. -41. -44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY