* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 108 100 91 78 69 57 46 35 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 114 108 100 91 78 69 57 46 35 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 113 105 96 88 72 60 50 44 38 32 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 11 12 6 3 8 21 27 37 41 40 SHEAR DIR 29 37 39 360 3 9 255 266 268 268 266 269 283 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.7 24.9 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 129 126 121 113 108 111 114 116 118 120 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 64 64 65 58 54 50 51 47 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 18 16 17 18 16 15 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 3 -1 0 -10 -24 -15 -7 0 -11 -1 -10 -7 200 MB DIV 49 9 5 5 1 5 11 3 -37 -18 -14 -34 -44 LAND (KM) 2169 2191 2217 2220 2121 1889 1632 1371 1109 828 516 239 3 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 19.0 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.3 133.0 133.9 134.7 136.8 139.2 141.7 144.2 146.9 149.9 152.6 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 15 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -28. -40. -50. -58. -64. -67. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -20. -29. -42. -51. -63. -74. -85. -96.-107.-113. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY