* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 101 92 86 76 62 52 41 31 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 108 101 92 86 76 62 52 41 31 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 107 98 90 81 67 56 48 42 37 32 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 11 13 3 6 15 20 29 27 29 24 SHEAR DIR 11 19 4 3 348 324 312 240 274 264 274 273 256 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.7 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 123 119 110 110 112 117 118 119 125 129 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 63 61 58 52 50 43 48 46 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 16 18 18 15 14 13 12 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 -2 -9 -18 -12 -17 1 -16 -7 -5 -8 -13 200 MB DIV 22 21 14 -6 4 26 4 -12 -20 -25 -18 -48 -31 LAND (KM) 2199 2224 2240 2130 2022 1772 1518 1235 931 638 366 84 94 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.2 19.7 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.0 133.7 134.7 135.6 137.9 140.3 143.0 145.9 148.7 151.3 154.0 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -47. -54. -59. -62. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -23. -29. -39. -53. -63. -74. -84. -95.-102.-105. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY