* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 82 76 70 58 50 39 32 24 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 91 82 76 70 58 50 39 32 24 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 91 83 76 70 59 51 45 40 35 31 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 5 5 10 16 24 26 17 15 7 SHEAR DIR 23 35 3 10 310 301 230 275 268 290 279 279 250 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 119 116 113 110 112 116 118 119 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 62 63 62 57 52 47 49 48 48 44 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 17 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -10 -14 -17 -12 -4 6 -4 12 6 6 0 -10 200 MB DIV 20 -6 0 17 22 3 -12 -27 -25 -15 -38 -33 -30 LAND (KM) 2208 2121 2036 1925 1816 1550 1277 984 681 398 130 30 280 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 134.8 135.5 136.5 137.5 140.0 142.6 145.4 148.3 151.0 153.6 156.1 158.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -30. -36. -42. -46. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -24. -30. -42. -50. -61. -68. -76. -82. -84. -84. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY