* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 71 62 55 45 38 32 24 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 79 71 62 55 45 38 32 24 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 79 71 65 59 51 45 40 37 33 31 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 2 10 14 18 18 18 9 15 SHEAR DIR 34 5 19 13 353 296 301 283 296 290 306 272 261 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 115 111 109 112 116 118 119 122 127 130 134 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 59 50 49 47 47 45 46 43 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 17 15 15 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -15 -21 -18 -25 -17 -11 -13 -12 -5 1 0 -2 200 MB DIV -4 -1 8 2 0 -15 -32 -24 -20 -20 -30 -9 3 LAND (KM) 2084 1982 1882 1764 1646 1382 1110 827 545 265 48 211 335 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.0 136.9 138.0 139.1 141.6 144.2 146.9 149.6 152.3 155.1 157.9 160.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -28. -35. -45. -52. -58. -65. -70. -75. -75. -74. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY