* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP072009 08/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 24 28 36 35 43 52 53 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 290 290 287 295 301 304 283 277 274 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 76 74 73 73 72 72 73 73 74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 43 44 39 31 24 18 18 19 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -71 -86 -89 -80 -50 -48 -34 -38 -48 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -23 -23 -18 -19 -33 -23 -33 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1417 1415 1415 1419 1423 1436 1456 1530 1509 1580 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.2 130.6 131.0 131.3 132.2 133.0 134.3 135.1 135.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -20. -33. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -40. -52. -66. -77. -84. -91. -96. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072009 ENRIQUE 08/07/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY