* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 79 74 65 54 42 32 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 79 74 65 54 42 32 24 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 80 75 69 61 54 48 42 34 34 32 30 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 4 5 12 17 23 25 27 19 23 24 SHEAR DIR 4 342 339 326 254 290 267 273 275 283 271 252 243 SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 111 112 113 117 118 118 122 127 131 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 55 48 47 49 48 48 46 46 44 45 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -18 -27 -19 -15 -11 -11 -19 -9 -2 -8 -6 -20 200 MB DIV 7 1 1 -2 -2 -20 -21 -7 -11 -14 -1 -4 5 LAND (KM) 1830 1706 1583 1451 1319 1036 743 450 167 -4 195 316 529 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.6 139.7 141.0 142.2 144.9 147.7 150.5 153.2 155.9 158.7 161.5 164.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 16 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -29. -33. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -36. -48. -58. -67. -74. -76. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY