* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/08/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 71 68 59 52 41 35 31 26 20 18 V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 71 68 59 52 41 35 31 26 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 73 69 66 59 54 49 45 42 39 37 36 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 2 5 9 13 20 23 24 25 36 30 SHEAR DIR 349 343 322 221 274 293 264 279 276 274 258 258 239 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 113 114 116 119 119 120 125 130 134 135 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 48 48 44 43 36 29 25 23 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 14 15 12 12 9 10 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -17 -7 1 -18 -13 -9 13 38 41 36 18 200 MB DIV 8 10 3 1 -9 -26 -35 -4 -9 -26 -26 -9 -21 LAND (KM) 1690 1558 1426 1289 1152 880 607 325 38 156 303 434 593 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 140.0 141.2 142.5 143.8 146.4 149.0 151.7 154.5 157.5 160.6 163.1 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 19 13 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -5. -9. -9. -7. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -21. -28. -39. -45. -49. -54. -60. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY