* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 68 65 57 48 39 34 29 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 68 65 57 48 39 32 30 25 22 21 V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 71 67 63 57 52 47 39 41 39 38 37 SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 7 12 10 16 21 22 19 23 21 30 SHEAR DIR 2 333 193 257 280 281 274 256 265 247 236 226 235 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 114 115 117 118 119 122 126 130 134 135 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 50 48 43 41 37 30 29 32 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 13 12 10 10 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 -3 7 -2 -11 -11 -3 13 16 11 9 -6 200 MB DIV 3 3 7 0 -9 -19 -33 -8 -20 -22 0 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 1540 1409 1277 1141 1005 733 450 167 -4 180 279 464 726 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.8 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 141.4 142.6 143.9 145.2 147.8 150.5 153.2 155.9 158.5 160.8 163.6 166.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 14 14 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -23. -32. -41. -46. -51. -56. -59. -60. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY