* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 62 57 50 40 34 27 25 20 15 17 V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 62 57 50 40 34 29 27 22 17 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 63 59 53 47 42 39 36 35 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 8 14 16 21 23 22 18 18 15 21 26 SHEAR DIR 333 249 249 277 277 269 276 267 260 239 226 222 238 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 116 117 117 118 120 125 129 132 134 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 50 51 48 44 46 38 32 31 30 36 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 15 12 13 10 10 8 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -11 2 -6 -17 -3 -3 4 8 6 0 -17 -26 200 MB DIV 11 14 4 -6 -17 -23 -38 -42 -33 12 -1 -14 1 LAND (KM) 1403 1267 1130 994 858 586 324 31 129 267 358 564 856 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 141.4 142.7 144.0 145.3 146.6 149.2 151.7 154.5 157.3 159.9 162.0 164.8 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 27 14 22 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -3. -7. -7. -10. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -18. -25. -35. -41. -48. -50. -55. -60. -58. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY