* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 66 63 50 40 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 66 63 50 40 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 66 62 54 47 41 36 33 31 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 2 8 14 21 22 34 33 32 25 26 28 25 25 SHEAR DIR 211 240 272 276 280 278 276 273 252 241 230 232 225 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 115 116 117 118 123 127 132 134 136 140 142 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 43 44 39 32 32 31 35 40 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 13 14 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 -11 -16 -8 -4 10 13 7 13 10 6 -7 200 MB DIV 10 8 2 -3 -2 -32 -21 -22 0 6 -15 8 32 LAND (KM) 1266 1130 995 849 702 411 127 47 193 326 573 863 1157 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 144.0 145.3 146.7 148.1 150.9 153.7 156.5 159.3 162.1 164.9 167.9 170.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 11 25 24 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -25. -35. -44. -52. -58. -66. -67. -68. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY