* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 08/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 10 17 17 19 23 19 20 10 3 10 18 32 SHEAR DIR 306 297 282 286 287 292 309 329 343 313 220 220 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 149 147 142 135 129 123 115 109 104 97 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 67 67 65 65 59 61 57 55 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -37 -36 -43 -48 -57 -60 -53 -59 -50 -32 -15 200 MB DIV 17 19 20 19 32 11 26 13 -2 -6 12 9 26 LAND (KM) 1299 1342 1387 1417 1452 1552 1649 1726 1817 1926 2034 2098 1938 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.9 119.8 120.7 121.5 123.4 125.3 127.3 129.3 131.2 133.0 134.6 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 60 57 49 40 36 16 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 08/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 08/09/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY