* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/09/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 58 53 41 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 62 58 53 41 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 64 60 56 47 40 35 31 30 28 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 13 18 27 26 31 38 33 23 28 28 34 36 43 SHEAR DIR 251 276 284 286 282 277 270 264 244 237 233 224 235 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 115 115 116 119 123 128 132 133 135 138 140 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 45 47 42 38 34 32 29 38 40 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -20 -13 -5 1 6 9 0 0 -6 -1 9 200 MB DIV -2 4 -5 -4 7 -20 -41 -22 -20 -4 0 11 31 LAND (KM) 1131 991 851 706 562 283 57 100 167 361 626 908 1173 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.4 146.7 148.1 149.5 152.3 154.9 157.6 160.3 163.0 165.8 168.6 171.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 8 11 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. -24. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -17. -29. -39. -45. -51. -57. -62. -65. -65. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY