* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 51 56 60 61 58 55 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 51 56 60 61 58 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 41 45 49 50 50 45 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 6 8 7 3 1 4 7 13 19 30 37 SHEAR DIR 38 25 21 5 332 284 297 219 205 207 237 233 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 128 126 123 118 113 112 112 112 115 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 127 124 120 113 107 106 105 105 106 108 109 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 65 62 61 59 52 51 47 45 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 6 9 14 20 17 49 60 51 20 1 -27 200 MB DIV 63 74 32 27 45 23 7 3 -2 14 11 22 0 LAND (KM) 411 517 638 773 913 1162 1416 1641 1890 2099 2260 2257 2291 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.7 22.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 20.6 22.0 23.3 24.7 26.0 28.3 30.6 32.6 34.9 37.1 39.3 41.1 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 36. 33. 30. 24. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)