* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922009 08/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 28 30 31 33 33 34 32 30 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 28 30 31 33 33 34 32 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 5 5 9 9 14 17 22 27 30 34 35 SHEAR DIR 307 285 180 207 239 209 239 235 240 219 240 231 234 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 140 139 140 142 142 142 143 143 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 75 73 68 63 59 55 54 52 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 4 4 5 6 8 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -33 -24 -13 -11 -6 16 22 21 19 0 -13 -11 200 MB DIV 55 41 47 71 54 48 53 58 72 93 79 53 3 LAND (KM) 1075 1133 1162 1174 1199 1240 1300 1359 1427 1514 1598 1677 1778 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 162.5 163.8 165.1 166.2 167.2 168.7 170.0 171.2 172.4 173.7 174.9 175.9 177.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 45 47 52 69 78 77 75 58 61 50 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 12. 10. 3. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922009 INVEST 08/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922009 INVEST 08/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY