* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 08/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 26 25 24 22 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 26 25 24 22 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 17 21 20 23 16 11 7 15 31 46 SHEAR DIR 285 286 290 295 295 313 329 328 328 279 237 221 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.6 23.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 145 143 138 133 127 121 116 109 100 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 67 64 62 62 60 60 55 60 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -38 -40 -45 -46 -55 -43 -26 -22 -6 12 0 200 MB DIV 17 15 10 11 3 16 -7 -1 -2 29 26 42 52 LAND (KM) 1387 1422 1461 1508 1559 1677 1774 1875 1985 2112 2040 1822 1623 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.7 121.5 122.4 123.3 125.3 127.3 129.4 131.3 133.3 135.3 137.4 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 37 28 17 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 08/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 08/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY