* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 36 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 27 26 33 38 41 34 31 24 24 24 25 27 SHEAR DIR 281 288 281 283 274 269 290 279 271 264 254 254 261 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 114 113 116 121 125 129 131 132 135 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 44 46 41 37 36 35 32 26 33 35 41 41 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 13 12 12 11 12 10 10 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -4 3 1 4 10 17 20 15 20 18 21 23 200 MB DIV -3 5 20 4 -9 -51 -40 -17 -18 -1 10 12 22 LAND (KM) 879 742 607 488 372 144 14 99 184 416 700 927 1112 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.9 149.2 150.4 151.6 154.1 156.6 159.0 161.3 163.8 166.6 168.8 170.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 15 7 8 26 12 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -25. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -9. -9. -9. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -25. -34. -43. -48. -53. -55. -60. -58. -53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY