* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 40 42 43 44 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 40 42 43 44 43 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 30 29 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 18 15 18 13 15 10 11 15 18 15 SHEAR DIR 283 302 303 310 303 329 337 4 67 104 137 184 191 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 142 139 135 132 131 130 126 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 64 64 66 63 64 63 64 61 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -40 -41 -42 -42 -36 -31 -18 -20 0 10 28 45 200 MB DIV 10 3 -8 1 19 -12 -12 5 -23 -14 -11 3 8 LAND (KM) 1451 1490 1531 1583 1638 1768 1872 2014 2178 2191 1970 1762 1565 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.4 124.3 126.3 128.4 130.4 132.3 134.3 136.4 138.4 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 32 13 11 10 7 8 8 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY