* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 35 37 38 35 30 25 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 35 37 38 35 30 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 28 28 26 23 19 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 9 11 8 15 14 15 23 32 40 42 44 SHEAR DIR 327 285 238 254 233 221 238 221 241 230 247 235 246 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 125 121 118 115 116 116 118 119 118 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 120 115 111 108 109 109 110 110 106 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 63 59 56 52 54 52 48 47 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 13 12 11 12 13 12 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 16 16 20 36 34 43 22 6 -31 -78 -112 200 MB DIV 41 40 27 15 12 11 3 2 10 27 4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 796 902 1014 1127 1242 1457 1710 1931 2159 2325 2343 2403 2409 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.8 22.0 23.3 24.5 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 30.8 33.2 35.5 37.8 40.0 41.7 42.8 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 2 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 10. 5. 0. -8. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)