* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 28 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 33 36 43 43 37 35 26 29 29 36 34 48 SHEAR DIR 276 262 264 266 278 274 278 269 272 269 266 252 257 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 117 119 120 124 127 129 130 130 134 136 141 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 35 38 31 33 36 35 34 38 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 8 9 8 6 20 20 19 10 14 -3 3 200 MB DIV -22 -8 -3 -9 -18 -17 -41 -13 -16 -17 5 -20 -46 LAND (KM) 546 428 312 212 121 -9 53 113 270 453 662 872 1107 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.9 152.0 153.1 154.2 156.4 158.6 160.6 162.4 164.2 166.2 168.1 170.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 5 7 8 13 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. -49. -52. -52. -51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/10/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY