* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 30 34 39 41 42 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 30 34 39 41 42 40 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 27 27 27 28 29 29 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 13 14 7 8 6 8 13 15 11 13 SHEAR DIR 302 315 314 320 321 318 340 96 145 179 226 188 176 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 142 141 141 139 134 131 127 124 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 64 67 64 61 59 57 54 53 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -41 -37 -29 -25 -24 -15 -21 -5 12 29 30 46 200 MB DIV -2 -2 -2 6 -11 -13 14 -7 -2 -8 -5 13 31 LAND (KM) 1554 1602 1653 1703 1756 1853 1973 2111 2265 2082 1890 1682 1469 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.5 124.3 125.2 126.0 127.7 129.6 131.5 133.4 135.3 137.1 139.1 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 12 10 11 10 10 15 9 8 8 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 4. 9. 11. 12. 10. 10. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/10/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY