* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 59 67 74 76 81 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 59 67 74 76 81 83 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 60 69 76 83 87 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 9 8 10 10 6 7 7 10 5 SHEAR DIR 122 139 94 108 148 147 128 119 94 126 110 129 114 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 155 153 150 149 149 146 147 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 77 76 74 72 72 71 69 67 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 15 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 7 2 3 7 18 41 50 71 84 103 101 200 MB DIV 84 102 92 74 66 69 61 60 37 10 24 34 32 LAND (KM) 828 846 891 935 984 1147 1207 1340 1506 1668 1874 2050 2289 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.4 107.9 109.4 110.8 113.5 116.1 118.7 121.4 124.1 126.9 129.7 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 37 42 41 40 54 45 29 28 25 33 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 34. 42. 49. 51. 56. 58. 61. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY