* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 35 31 26 22 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 35 31 26 22 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 20 18 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 6 11 12 16 20 28 31 37 40 33 SHEAR DIR 233 252 242 233 207 214 191 219 228 243 234 251 249 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 125 123 121 119 117 119 120 121 121 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 119 116 115 113 112 113 113 112 109 105 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 62 63 56 56 53 49 44 41 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 13 3 6 25 44 63 71 51 19 -12 -38 -78 -101 200 MB DIV 30 23 11 7 14 2 13 26 21 12 -13 -15 -42 LAND (KM) 1001 1084 1171 1270 1370 1624 1921 2204 2129 2098 2131 2139 2067 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.6 23.7 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.3 30.2 32.5 35.2 38.0 40.6 42.9 44.6 45.9 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 13 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 5 3 4 4 5 5 11 11 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 6. 1. -3. -9. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)