* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 40 44 46 46 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 40 44 46 46 46 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 43 43 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 7 6 8 8 10 10 11 17 17 SHEAR DIR 308 318 328 341 4 48 112 150 173 208 174 189 192 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 144 142 140 138 134 131 130 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 67 66 66 63 63 59 58 53 57 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -22 -9 -8 -9 -6 0 19 30 43 52 64 75 200 MB DIV 6 13 -3 -7 12 4 -11 -12 -9 2 23 12 25 LAND (KM) 1701 1771 1843 1899 1952 2097 2266 2189 1972 1766 1572 1367 1165 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.8 126.7 127.6 128.5 130.5 132.5 134.6 136.7 138.7 140.6 142.6 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 21 25 35 36 33 21 18 11 7 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY